Read the latest Yardi Matrix National Multifamily Market Report.
U.S. asking rents rose 1.8% year-over-year through June, or $7 to $1,726, the lowest rate since 2011, excluding the pandemic year.
Report highlights:
- Year-over-year rent growth fell to 1.8% in June, marking the fourth straight month of rent gains in 2023. Nine markets posted negative growth during the period.
- Rental demand was sustained by robust gains in the job market, and by the high cost of debt, which hinders transactions. The Federal Reserve signaled more rate hikes to come.
- Rent growth was equal across property segments, up 0.4% month-over-month in June; occupancy at 95.0% for the fourth consecutive month in June.
- Asking rents for single-family rentals rose 1.3% year-over-year through June, to $2,103.
Rents rise, but slowly
The average U.S. multifamily asking rent rose 1.8% year-over-year through June, the equivalent of $7, to $1,726. Excluding the pandemic year, the growth rate was the lowest since 2011, and continued to decelerate, down by 74 basis points month-over-month and by 370 basis points from January. During the second quarter, rents increased by $20, or 1.2%, while during the first half of 2023, the gains totaled $23, or 1.4%.
The employment market added 1.5 million jobs during the first half of the year; combined with weak home sales—primarily due to the prohibitive cost of debt—contributed to sustaining demand for rentals. Furthermore, interest rates are expected to rise more, which will make it impossible for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to meet allocations, at $75 billion.
Nine of the top 30 Yardi Matrix metros posted negative rent growth, with the majority in the Sun Belt and West regions. There, demand cooled as new supply came online. Moreover, Yardi Matrix has reshuffled its top 30 metros by adding Columbus, Detroit, New Jersey (Central and Northern), Richmond and San Diego, and removing the Inland Empire, Kansas City, Orange County, Sacramento and San Jose. Northeast and Midwest metros remained in top ranks for rent growth, led by New Jersey (6.5%), New York (6.3%), Indianapolis (6.1%), Chicago (4.9%) and Boston (4.7%). New Jersey’s solid rent performance is driven by New Yorkers relocating to the suburbs.
The national occupancy rate remained at 95.0% in May for the fourth consecutive month. Of Yardi Matrix’s top 30 metros, the rate rose only in Chicago (0.2%) and New York (0.1%). The largest decline in occupancy was registered in Richmond-Tidewater (-1.7%).
Short-term rent growth on par across asset classes
Rents increased 0.4% month-over-month in June, led by New York (1.3%), Chicago (1.1%), Columbus (1.0%), Boston (0.9%) and San Diego (0.8%). Growth was equal in both Renter-by-Necessity and Lifestyle segments. More so, rents increased in 25 of the top 30 metros in Lifestyle and 26 in RBN. In several metros, Lifestyle growth outperformed the RBN sector. Increases of 1.0% or more in upscale rents were recorded in New York (1.6%), Columbus (1.5%), Chicago (1.3%), Boston (1.1%) and San Diego (1.0%). The scarcity of for-sale homes of the market contributed to the upturn in the upscale segment.
The renewal rent growth rate, or the percentage of residents that are rolling over their existing leases, stood at 8.5% year-over-year in April, virtually unchanged from the 8.6% rate in March. The highest increases were registered in Miami (13.8%), Orlando (12.2%), Raleigh (11.1%) and Richmond (10.9%). Despite negative rent growth, renewal rents remained high in Seattle (10.6%) and Austin (10.1%). Meanwhile, national lease renewal rates continued to moderate, up 64.4% in April from 65.9% in March. New Jersey topped ranks, at 82.3%, and had one of the highest occupancy rates in the country, at 97.0%.
High mortgage rates sustain the single-family BTR segment
The national average asking rate for SFRs gained another $5, to $2,103 in June, the equivalent of a 1.3% year-over-year increase. The rate was 80 basis points below May. The occupancy rate averaged 95.9% in June, declining 30 basis points from the same month in 2023.
Despite high mortgage rates, single-family home prices remained elevated, which kept many first-time buyers in the renters’ pool. Optimal Blue-s 30-year FHA fixed-mortgage rate index stood at 6.6 in late June, which is double the 2020-2021 levels. Presently, the difference between renting and owning has increased to more than $1,000, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. More so, the volume of homes for sale dwindled, with just 582,000 homes available for purchase in May, according to Realtor.com, which is half of pre-pandemic levels.
Read the full Matrix Multifamily National Report-June 2023.
Add Comment