More than half a million LIHTC units will hit their initial 15-year compliance period between 2025 and 2038, standing to lose affordability restrictions, the latest Yardi Matrix affordable housing market report shows.
Report Highlights:
- The end of the initial and extended-use compliance periods which keep LIHTC assets affordable is fast approaching for a large swath of properties.
- Roughly 520,000 private LIHTC units will reach the end of their initial 15-year affordable compliance period between 2025 and 2038.
- Another 330,000 units are set to lose affordability restrictions on their 30-year extended-use period during the same interval.
- Affordability restrictions were lost on 155,555 LIHTC units after the initial 15-year compliance period since 1990.
Affordability restrictions hang in the balance for thousands of private LIHTC properties
The end of the LIHTC program’s compliance period looms over thousands of affordable projects, intensifying a national housing shortage. Between 2025 and 2038, more than 4,200 private LIHTC assets comprising 520,000 units are on track to meet their 15-year compliance period’s end, according to a study of Yardi Matrix’s new affordable housing database. However, owners may opt to enter an extended-use period, maintaining affordability for an additional 15 years.
Zooming in further, 44,600 private LIHTC units are set to meet the expiration of their extended-use periods between 2025 and 2027 at a national level. The apartment count is widely dispersed locally, with five states facing the potential affordability loss of more than 2,000 units. Texas will be most impacted as it’s set to lose affordability on 9,179 units, followed by Florida (6,512 units), Ohio (2,800), California (2,184) and North Carolina (2,122 units).
As the affordability of these apartments hangs in the balance, the forecasted LIHTC deliveries may offset some of the losses. For instance, California is set to witness 12,556 LIHTC unit completions between 2025 and 2027, netting the state a positive change of 10,372 affordable apartments. New York and North Carolina may also be in the green with a surplus of 2,604 and 2,411 LIHTC units, respectively. The forecast isn’t so favorable for every state as Ohio faces a net loss of 1,666 LIHTC units and Texas could be 428 affordable units short.
Assets may not necessarily lose affordability at the end of their compliance and extended-use periods, though the need for capital for rehabilitation could call for a hefty investment since the properties may be up to 30 years old at that point. Owners could access 4 percent LIHTC and various other subsidies for repairs and maintenance. However, these grants may prove inadequate to meet the nation’s preservation needs, according to Yardi Matrix Director of Research Paul Fiorilla.
Losing affordability restrictions
Alternatively, the owners could sell such properties, should the Qualified Contracts allow it. Value-add demand is typically strong for assets in pristine condition due to the prospect of turning them into market-rate communities. Affordability restrictions were lost on 155,555 LIHTC units just after their initial 15-year compliance period since 1990, according to a report by the National Low-Income Housing Coalition and the Public and Affordable Housing Research Corporation.
Read the full Yardi Matrix Affordable Housing Market Report: March 2025.
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